The Recruiter's Blog
by Alan Charman
"If you want to get the inside oil on New Zealand employment (and social!) conditions, forget the Department of Labour and newspapers, read this blog!"
Autumn 2009
1st May 2009
Oh where are those days when May Day was an excuse for the USSR to trot its rockets and goose-stepping soldiers past Lenin's Mausoleum?
All we have to entertain us now is headless chooks banging on about pigs!
Anyway - some positive news on the job and economic front:
Dairy farm returns are up by 4-5%
March balance of payments was the best since 2002
Jobs have started to come online as the foot is lifted from some firms' throats.
Just in the past couple of weeks, we've discovered a number of firms taking the handbrake of recruitment and starting to add their teams again. We now have a range of new vacancies, so check them out immediately!
In general, the market is hard for job seekers, with fresh jobs being noticeably for experienced candidates, and mainly very specific and rare experience at that. An interesting survey came out during the week, which showed that accountants are actually harder to find now than six months ago - when one could reasonably assume that the looser job market would be making it easier.
One thing affecting that and other areas of recruitment is an attitude that the best thing to do is stick with your current employer. Better the devil you know...
While I recommended sitting tight a couple of months ago, I have to amend that a little as I do think we're coming out of the recession, and with interest rates down to 2.5%, I think we've already taken lots of steps in the right direction and that the time to act is now.
If that sounds wrong, read on...
The vast majority of companies hiring in technical positions right now are ones which have sustained the worst effects of the crisis, but have superior products and/or customer bases. The key to expanding our economy and returning to the shape we were in will be by encouraging the best companies and operators to lead us forward. Some of those operators have already got orders stacked up awaiting people to finish the goods.
Those jobs will be taken, by migrants, or the smarter worker, because they will reap the benefits of their employer leaping forward as the world economy starts its uphill climb. In many cases, some of the opposition has closed down, ensuring greater rewards still for the smart operators.
If you can honestly see your current employer as leading the pack, being innovative and growing the business in hard times, then indeed, you should stick with the ship - being already in on the growth will ensure you come out well!
If, on the other hand, your employer has contracted, shut shifts, cut staff numbers and generally kept its head above water, then you should be looking at opportunities right now.
Don't get caught up in career stagflation as a result of the crisis, get out and look around.
... and the pragmatic part of me says: you should ring me to discuss options in a fast-moving recruitment market.
Alan Charman
I'd also like to cover the A-H1N1 influenza currently dominating headlines around the world.
First of all: don't panic!
It seems to be just another influenza, so if you've got it, stay home, drink plenty of water and get anti-viral medicine if your doctor thinks it's warranted.
9 April 2009
Little has changed from my last comment - the market is slowly crawling towards some positive signs. Business sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, house prices are still falling and fixed interest rates are still rising.
One thing worth noting is Alan Bollard's unusual advice to home owners not to lock interest rates in.
This is an obvious piece of advice, because the world market is still very risk-averse, so money locked in for a period is harder to get, and costs more. Floating rates are linked to the Reserve Bank's OCR, which is expected to stay at or about 3% for a long time. Fixing your rate right now is a bad move.
On the recruitment front, we aren't too far from a major employment opportunity with the new Lion brewery nearing completion at East Tamaki.
Good news will be thin on the ground, but the end of the recession will come.
There has been some significantly good news ex-USA in the last couple of days - inventories have fallen and sales have risen. Given that the US economy has been the driver of the world's economy for the past half century, this is a great sign, because it shows US consumers spending money. It just might be the might at the end of the tunnel.
Locally, the house-building market has arisen from the ashes and I see foundations being dug where none were being put in a month ago. Many investors are cashed up and ready to go since the demise of the finance company arena, and property is now seen as even more attractive.
I stick with my prediction that we will start to see growth in the spring. I believe the foundation for a return to growth has been set and we will be able to start reaping this coming summer.
23rd March 2009
Long time between comments, I know, but what the hell has there been to say?
I've been trying to wait until a bit clearer position emerges from the wreck of the world's economy, and plenty of commentators, from Barack Obama and John Key to Joe Bloggs has given his or her opinion on what is happening, where we're headed and how to keep your head above it.
Trouble is, not one of them has a clue. John Key, quite content to take a Jim Bolger-type role in all this, is quietly building cycleways to attract fit young Englishmen to our fair shores, while USA prints so many dollars that global warming has sped up due to the recession of 2008/9.
Well, as one of the few who saw it all coming, I'm going to stick my neck on the line a little here:
The Crisis is Over.
But!
Do not expect jobs to become more available for some time, but I do believe the chances of a worldwide 1930s-style depression is over So what happens next?
First off, unemployment will continue to rise.
Retail has contracted sharply, house prices have fallen sharply and unemployment has increased exponentially These things won't change tomorrow, and we will certainly see more pain before the gain. On the other hand, I have already seen employers reverse their recruitment intentions as they realise that the sky isn't falling and business will continue.
Along with that, typically innovative Kiwis are picking up the tools, sharpening up the brains and starting up new companies.
In a commercial and industrial real estate market utterly saturated with empty buildings, it's going to take some little while before we return to "normal". I parenthesise the word as I doubt the financial world will resemble that of 2007 anyway.
Ok, so what are some of the things you can do?
First off - don't quit your job and move to Aussie! I am getting a large number of applicants who have done just that, only to return to NZ with their tails firmly between their legs - Aussie is not Oz, a mythical country where magic happens, it another country facing much the same prospects as we are and lots of people are losing their jobs in Aussie as well. If you're in a good job, or even one which just pays the bills, stay there!
One axiom which will come out of this recession is that companies which survive it will be stronger and fitter than they were before and will be able to capitalise on the consequent upturn which follows the downturn. If you stick with the ship, you'll be there to reap the rewards - just make sure you ask for them!
If you're unemployed right now - be creative, brainstorm with your friends; try to think up different options. Things like security, debt collection and farming continue to be net employers - there are more jobs than trained people. In that kind of market, an employer will often be swayed by attitude. If he/she sees someone who is keen, has studied and understood the market, and who is seen to have passion for that industry, that person may well be given a shot.
Keep thinking!
If you're in business and looking to save money, our industrial temps will almost certainly save you better than 15% on your current costs, so talk to us anytime on 5799111.
2 February 2009
Will the Reserve Bank's rate drop help?
It will certainly help if you have a mortgage!
I doubt, however, that it is the end of the recession, or even the beginning of the end of it. There is still just too much pain in the market - especially the employment market.
I am getting applications from so many people who have been made redundant in the past couple of months that I'm sure the predictions of unemployment rate going to 6% are well light. Some of the stories are truly awful, with one couple today, where the wife was made redundant in December, and the husband, last Friday.
I don't want to be a doom merchant, but I believe in discussing reality rather than what we want to see.
If you've been made redundant, you will have trouble finding a job quickly, but you will find a job, so don't lose heart.
Make sure you take every dollar of entitlement from the government, especially the new redundancy package!
When will things improve?
This is a difficult question, and one to which every investor would love to be able to answer, but I think there are some signs that things are stabilising, but with a proviso that company closures haven't finished yet - many are operating on increasing inventory to keep production high, but this can only be a short-term answer.
One of the most important things is to be flexible. Don't just focus on jobs in your industry - they may not be there now, or for some time. Try to think of other jobs you can do. Hospitality is still several thousand workers short, and while I wouldn't recommend anyone work in the game, it will provide an income - even though a small one. Also, supermarkets, The Warehouse, Mitre 10 and the petrol companies are always hiring, especially on night shifts. Very few people enjoy working nights, but if it's the only job going, it's worth your while.
Also, feel free to talk to us at any time - our advice is always free and freely available.