The Recruiter's Blog

by Alan Charman

"If you want to get the inside oil on New Zealand employment (and social!) conditions, forget the Department of Labour and newspapers, read this blog!"

 

Almost three months on from the (modesty won't forbid me from noting how brilliantly accurate it was!) article below, I think the true nature of H1N1-A novel influenza is clear. It is a bad cold, with a death lottery.

Even the very first H1N1-A fatality in this country had only complained of a bad cold before he died. He was one of the unfortunate ones who drew the ticket marked death.

Only 3000 cases have been tested in New Zealand, and the health authorities will only admit to "Many times more cases" having existed here. The latest guesstimate anyone has come up with is "between 10 and 25%" of the population.

I'd say the higher end of that spectrum is at the lower end of reality. My own guesstimate is that 30-40% of Kiwis have had the dreaded Swine 'Flu, but that very few of them even knew it.

The numbers mentioned below stack up well in New Zealand. The vast majority of people who have had it haven't been very sick at all. I'm basing this assessment on the very peculiar virus which swept through New Zealand during winter. It presented almost identical symptoms in everyone who caught it, with the only difference in the severity. The symptoms are the ones listed for swine 'flu. Why it seems to kill a bigger percentage of people at the start of an epidemic is just one of the odd things about H1N1-A, because the early death rate is somewhat at odds with the enormous numbers of people who have been infected with the virus which I'm guessing is H1N1-A. Even on the basis of the health department's lower guess of 10%, that figure doesn't stack up against the fact that most of the recorded NZ swine 'flu deaths were in the early stages of the pandemic.

Normal influenza kills 300 Kiwis a year, swine 'flu has killed just over a dozen.

in UK, the numbers expected to die from it have been drastically revised downwards as it becomes apparent that swine 'flu is not going to kill off more than a few people, mostly from a range of groups with medical problems or late-term pregnancy.

The deaths of people from swine 'flu will be no less tragic because there are fewer than expected. Each death will represent misery and grief for their loved ones, and it's no comfort - in fact probably the opposite - to know that their bereavement is inexplicable.

What we don't know about the virus would fill several books, but at least there is going to some proper enquiry done now that the infection rate is falling. New Zealand will possibly be the first country to undertake widespread antibody testing to find out just how many people have contracted the virus.

The fear is now that the disease will come back more virulently than ever next winter - and in the forthcoming winter in the northern hemisphere. These thoughts are based on the identical influenza doing just that in 1917-1919. That, however, was the first emergence of the virus and while the identical virus hasn't been around in the meantime, similar ones must have conferred some immunity on people or we'd be seeing a lot more really sick people.

H1N1-A attacks the lower lungs rather than the upper tract as is usual with the 'flu, and this is where the problems seems to come from, with pregnant women being the guide. Women in the third trimester have a great deal of pressure on the lower lungs and it would be difficult for them to expel the viral mucous. Some asthmatics may have similar problems, and especially obese asthmatics would have difficulty with a lower respiratory virus like H1N1-A.

With some good work and smart analysis, these things should become clear as tests are carried out and evaluated.

Meanwhile, if you're in the northern hemisphere, the best thing to do about the swine 'flu is nothing. Stay warm and seek help if you have any kind of reduced lung function. Other than that, you'll not be sick enough to worry about.

 

22 June 2009

More Swine 'Flu Bullshit!

On 4 June, news media ran this story:

Today, with the docking of a ship with a passenger with influenza, the hype and stupid moves into full swing, with Auckland Regional Public Health Service clinical director Dr Julia Peters making the following idiotic comments:

Dr Peters said that based on modelling by the World Health Organisation, it was predicted that 60 per cent of people would become infected with the new virus, A (H1N1).

Despite Peters herself saying:

We are promoting getting prepared, not getting panicky.

She goes on to spoil it with this line of pure bullshit:

So, half the country will be off sick with this pandemic virus.

Except, that isn't giving the entire picture.

The population of Mexico is presently 110 million people. According to the World Health Organisation, a total of 7,624 people have had swine 'flu in Mexico.

That is .006% of Mexico's population which has been recorded as having the disease - a lousy seven thousand people. There is an obvious conundrum here, with an equally-obvious answer. If 60% of a population will catch this "brand new" virus, then in fact, somewhere around 55 million Mexicans have had the disease, with a total of 7000 feeling sick enough to call in sick to the doctor. Of that, some 140 have died.

The A-H1N1 virus known as the swine 'flu is a crock of shit. It is clearly far weaker than seasonal influenza and the only thing stopping health authorities in this country saying so is that a few privileged fat cats who milk the public health system for all it's worth find it in their best interests to preserve a "pandemic" scenario of closed schools and shut-downs.

Fortunately, most Kiwis are pretty cynical about the news media, so most people won't be fooled by the ridiculous media and health system commentary. Going by the Mexican data, there is less than a chance in 1000 that you'll even realise you have influenza! And if you're one of those unlucky few, there is another chance in 200 you might get admitted to hospital with it. 1 chance in 200,000 of being hospitalised isn't the new Black Death.

 

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